South Africa’s economy is built on relatively energy-intensive industries, such as mining, iron and steel, and other metals. Historically, South Africa has had low electricity and energy prices as a result of having excess and cheap primary energy in the form of easy-to-mine coal reserves. CSIR research in this field is informed by this background.

The demand side needs to be forecasted accurately, because the energy demand determines what type and amount of energy supply measures need to be installed.

To improve energy efficiency and identify demand-response measures, CSIR researchers conduct a detailed assessment of current energy end-use across all end-use sectors. To forecast the total energy demand in the different end-use sectors over long time periods is important to guide investments into energy infrastructure.

The science, engineering and technology problem is to determine the energy intensity of different economic sectors, in combination with the expected structure of the economy, as well as interlinks between energy sectors, such as a fuel switch from electric to gas cooking.

Spatial demand forecasting becomes an increasingly important topic in the electricity sector, as it determines the need for new grid infrastructure, especially in conjunction with spatially distributed supply options in the form of solar photovoltaic, wind, biogas, small hydro and other renewables. Regional optimisation of supply and demand options can only be done if the spatial energy demand is forecasted accurately.

Demand response is an increasingly important topic in the balancing of supply and demand in the future, as more and more non-dispatchable supply options, such as solar photovoltaic and wind are introduced into the energy system.

A structured assessment of the energy demand side along all end-use sectors is required to determine the dispatchability of energy end-use, such as  shifting water heating in time in order to absorb volatility in the solar/wind supply.