The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), in collaboration with the South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC), will once again deploy its election night prediction model during the 2026 local government elections, providing scientifically informed projections of election outcomes as voting results are progressively announced.
For more than two decades, the CSIR has applied advanced statistical and mathematical techniques to predict election outcomes at national, provincial and municipal levels. Since its introduction during South Africa’s 1999 general elections, the model has been successfully utilised in every national and municipal election, establishing a strong track record of reliable forecasting and demonstrating the practical application of science in supporting public understanding of electoral outcomes. The model continuously incorporates newly declared results, allowing its projections to be refined as counting progresses.
The CSIR’s election prediction model is based on two key principles: the analysis of historical voting behaviour patterns and an understanding of how voting district results are received and reported during the counting process. By combining these principles, the model groups voting districts with similar characteristics through statistical clustering techniques, allowing it to generate projections before all voting districts have reported their results.
Over the years, the model has consistently demonstrated a high level of accuracy, often producing stable and representative projections once only a small percentage of voting districts has been declared. As more results become available, the predictions become increasingly precise, converging with the final election outcomes.
“The CSIR’s election prediction model demonstrates how scientific expertise can be applied to matters of national importance. By combining historical electoral data with advanced statistical modelling, we are able to provide the public with timely, scientifically informed projections as election results become available. Importantly, these projections are not opinion polls or official election results, but independent statistical estimates based on the results declared at a particular point in time,” says Dr Jabu Mtsweni, Executive Cluster Manager: NextGen Enterprises and Institutions.
The model contributes to transparency and public understanding of the electoral process by providing stakeholders, the media and the public with informed projections as official results are progressively released by the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) of South Africa. The IEC remains the sole authority responsible for the administration, verification and official declaration of election results, while the CSIR model provides an independent scientific forecasting capability.
Beyond elections, the technologies and methodologies underpinning the prediction model reflect the CSIR’s broader capabilities in predictive analytics, data science, modelling and forecasting. These capabilities demonstrate how scientific research can be translated into practical tools that support decision-making, improve planning and provide insights into complex challenges across different sectors.
“The CSIR continues to invest in cutting-edge capabilities in mathematics, statistics, artificial intelligence and data analytics. Our election prediction model is one example of how these capabilities can be translated into solutions with direct societal value. The same scientific expertise can be applied to complex forecasting and predictive analytics challenges in areas such as infrastructure planning, public services and economic development, both in South Africa and across the African continent,” says Dr Mtsweni.
As one of the few election prediction systems of its kind in Africa, the CSIR’s model demonstrates the organisation's commitment to leveraging science, technology and innovation in support of democracy, good governance and public participation.
-ENDS-
Issued by CSIR Strategic Communication
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About the CSIR
The CSIR, an entity of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation, is one of the leading scientific and technology research, development and implementation organisations in Africa. Constituted by an Act of Parliament in 1945 as a science council, the CSIR undertakes directed and multidisciplinary research and technological innovation, as well as industrial and scientific development, to improve the quality of life of all South Africans. For more information, visit: www.csir.co.za
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Published 29 October 2026