The core capability of this area is the use of numerical modelling, long-term observations and experiments to understand and project changes in the Earth system at various temporal and spatial resolutions. This is underpinned by an extensive understanding of atmosphere, ocean systems and terrestrial ecosystem dynamics.
Research and development in this area is geared towards the development of decision-making tools by enhancing the understanding and projecting future climate, including the associated feedbacks and impacts on the terrestrial and ocean systems. Research in this area is outlined below.

Download INDC technical report: 2015

Global change and ecosystem dynamics
A highly skilled interdisciplinary team of CSIR scientists specialises in system-based approaches to understanding the complexities, linkages, trade-offs and biophysical dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems in the context of global change. The group draws upon good strategic science, policy-relevant information and on-the-ground experience to deliver science-based solutions to promote sustainable resource use and management. The group contributes to the understanding of terrestrial ecosystem dynamics in the development of the CSIR Variable Resolution - Earth Systems Model, a first African-based Earth system model to develop reliable projections of future climate change.  

Contact person:
Dr Graham von Maltitz: Research group leader
Email: gvmalt@csir.co.za

Ocean systems and climate
Researchers focus on understanding how and why carbon dioxide (CO2), oxygen and primary productivity are changing in the South Atlantic and Southern Oceans. The focus of the research is on understanding the climate sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Southern Ocean in the 21st century.  The Southern Ocean is likely to play a critical role in global and regional climate over this period.  The core of our science is to understand how much of the climate sensitivity is linked to fine-scale physics and biogeochemistry.
The work is central to the global challenge in reducing the uncertainty of the estimates of the mean annual flux of CO2 between the Southern Ocean and the atmosphere. These changes are important not only in respect of constraining the rate of global warming, but also as indicators of the rate and the way in which the regional system is adjusting to climate change. This is a component in the development of the CSIR’s Earth system model.

Contact person:
Dr Pedro Monteiro: Research group leader
Email: pmonteir@csir.co.za 

Climate studies, modelling and environmental health
The CSIR conducts research into understanding the changing planet, by providing insights into the drivers, variability, trends and changes of the Earth system as it relates to the African continent. This CSIR research group has a strong focus on modelling and describing the risks and vulnerabilities that climate variability and change pose to Africa, as such provides seamless projections of the future climate at multi-decadal through seasonal and near term time-scales from the CSIR’s Earth system model. Researchers are actively developing climate services capabilities through an application modelling framework for specific domains such as health, agriculture, water and human settlements.

Contact person:
Dr Francois Engelbrecht: Research group leader
Email: fengelbrecht@csir.co.za