The CSIR, together with project partners, convened the first scientific briefing about the potential effects of the looming El Niño at the University in Pretoria on 19 June.  A panel of climate experts shared technical and impact information with representatives of the business community and various levels of government to increase their awareness of the impact on global weather patterns associated with the El Niño and La Niña events. This was in light of the potentially strong El Niño that is currently manifesting in the Pacific Ocean region.

Some 300 participants attended the event in person and online. Active engagement about past and present (and future) El Niño events and their potential impacts on the economy, health and livelihoods, directed discussions about the impacts and consequences of such climate phenomena in our region.

El Niño and La Niña are fluctuating and recurring opposite ocean-atmosphere phases of the state of the oceans in the Pacific Ocean (collectively referred to as ENSO) and are defined by the distribution of the warmer or cooler (than long-term average) sea surface temperatures. These periodically reach thresholds at which point an El Niño and La Niña seasonal event is declared. The extent and scale of these phases affect global atmospheric circulation patterns and can affect seasonal weather all over the world.

Facilitating the discussions at the summit was CSIR senior researcher in the Holistic Climate Change impact area and Director of the ACCESS Programme, Dr Neville Sweijd, who was joined by Professor Willem Landman from the University of Pretoria, Drs Johan Malherbe and Mokhele Moeletsi from the Agricultural Research Council, Christien Engelbrecht and Katlego Ncongwane from the South African Weather Service, Peter Johnston from the University of Cape Town, and Dechlan Pillay from the National Disaster Management Centre. The climate experts presented data on the relationship between El Niño and extreme weather events in South Africa, and they explained that a moderate-to-strong El Niño is currently developing. This is in addition to the concern that ocean temperatures have continued to rise steadily, with new records being breached almost every year in the last decade. Data show that May and June 2023 had the highest sea surface temperature ever recorded in these months, to date. This illustrates the established trends of global climatic conditions and is raising concern worldwide.  

The programme at the briefing included an explanation of the science behind phenomena such as the ENSO and provided a historical overview of ENSO’s regional impacts in respect of rainfall and temperature in southern Africa. This was followed by an interactive panel discussion on the very impactful 2015/16 El Niño and how it impacted agriculture, human health, water supply and disaster response. An update on the status of the current El Niño and demystifying concepts such as ‘likelihood’ and ‘heat waves’, which need to be well understood, led to a lively engagement. This was followed by a talk about the response structures and policies that are in place, which are designed to intervene should the impacts of El Niño manifest later this year. There was information sharing on planning and the pre-emptive awareness of the weather that is expected during this year’s summer rainfall season in parts of the country (Free State, stretching towards the northern parts of the country, including southern Africa) was extensively discussed.  

It was emphasised that not every El Niño and its impact on southern Africa are the same, and this is what makes forecasting at this time scale (months) very challenging. There are examples in the past where weak ENSO events had severe impacts and strong ENSO events had marginal impact. However, in general, these events do have a measurable and sometimes severe impact.

Nevertheless, the team of experts who attended the summit expressed concern that this year’s El Niño weather system could lead to a substantially hotter and dryer summer later this year. Prof. Landman, who is a seasonal climate prediction expert noted that, “We can predict the La Niña impacts more confidently than the impact of the El Niño.” Preparation is key, and the focus of the day was on creating awareness (while not inducing alarm), learning from the stakeholders about what they need in terms of climate information, as well as sharing critical knowledge and information on the various ways in which El Niño may impact lives and livelihoods.

The next gathering of climate experts is planned to take place in September this year when more information about this year’s El Niño event and more data on the climate trends are available in the region as the spring season approaches.

See what participants had to say at the El Niño 2023 Summit on El Niño 2023 Summit Padlet

Click on the link to watch the  El Niño 2023 Summit